In recent decades, the world has witnessed a worrying phenomenon: the steady decline in fertility rates in many regions, both in developed and developing countries. This phenomenon poses significant challenges for future demographic stability, economy, and social well-being. In this article, we will explore the causes behind this decline in fertility, its possible consequences, and the measures that could address this worrying trend.
El Mundo se enfrenta a una Crisis Demográfica sin Prece
Humanity will decline by the end of the century.
The decline in fertility rates has led to a change in the demographic structure of many societies. According to a new study published in The Lancet, 97% of countries and territories on Earth will face a demographic crisis by the year 2100, with a birth rate that cannot guarantee generational replacement. The few places where high fertility will be maintained will be concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to a "divided world" with "enormous social and economic consequences."
These estimates are based on the Global Burden of Disease study conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The long-term generational replacement rate is set at 2.1 children per fertile person capable of giving birth, but by 2050, researchers estimate that 76% of countries and territories on the planet (155 out of 204) will have fallen below the replacement rate. Europe's fertility rate has stagnated at 1.5 births per woman over the past decade, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain stable population levels on the continent.
The collapse of birth rates affects countries from South Korea to Serbia, where the rate has dropped to 0.8 and 1.1 births per woman of childbearing age. By 2050, the rest of Europe will have fallen below, except for Germany, France, Iceland, and Denmark. The negative rate will extend to nations like Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Saudi Arabia, while the positive rate will only occur in seven: Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan. Along with Angola, Zambia, and Uganda, they would be the only ones not losing population by 2100.
Furthermore, achieving the UN's 2030 Agenda goals would have leveling effects. In the case of Niger, where a rate of five births per fertile woman is expected in 2050, achieving the goal of access to contraception would reduce it to 4.3. And achieving universal education would cut that figure to 2.7 births per woman. "Nations with well-established women's rights have better health and economic indices," evaluates another co-author, Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharjee. "It is imperative that women can have as many children as they want without having to give up their careers."
Causes of fertility decline.
Several reasons have been identified as contributors to the decline in fertility rates. These include expanded access to education and family planning, increased urbanization, and the costs associated with raising children. Additionally, changes in gender roles and the trend toward delaying the start of motherhood have also influenced this trend.
Socioeconomic impact.
The decline in fertility poses significant socioeconomic implications. A smaller number of people in the workforce is expected to contribute to slower economic growth and increased pressure on social welfare systems. Additionally, an aging population could lead to a decline in innovation and productivity, as well as a greater burden on the younger generation left to support an aging population.
Future perspectives and solutions.
Addressing this fertility crisis requires concerted political and social measures. This could include policies that facilitate work-life balance, expanding access to education and healthcare, as well as incentives for motherhood and fatherhood. Additionally, it is crucial to address socioeconomic inequalities that may influence people's reproductive decisions.
A study illustrates well the expected trends in the near (2050) and distant (2100) future: a sustained reduction in the global fertility rate and in almost all countries," evaluates Teresa Castro Martín, Research Professor at the Institute of Economy, Geography, and Demography (IEGD) of the CSIC in statements to the Science Media Centre. However, she recalls that the reference projections are those of the United Nations Population Division and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (Austria).
The current work includes "interesting" contributions according to the expert, such as the impact of corrective measures. "Family policies - such as expanding parental leave, universalizing childcare centers, providing assistance for childcare, or facilitating access to assisted reproduction treatments - would have a modest impact in countries with very low fertility, but could prevent fertility from continuing to decline."
The unprecedented fertility crisis facing the world poses significant challenges for the future. However, with concerted political and social action, it is possible to address this worrying trend and ensure a prosperous and sustainable future for future generations.
At Mater Clinic, we could help you overcome the challenges related to fertility and work towards a future where it is common to see many children running in the park. A world with better fertility rates, thanks to the wide variety of fertility treatments and assisted reproduction, we can do our part and fight or curb the growing demographic crisis.
If you are interested in learning more about our services, do not hesitate to contact us as we would be delighted to start the journey with you.
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